Australian Asset Review —Enrichment Success PTY LTD

Market Review

How Australian asset classes have moved over the last 20 years

A descriptive look at historical ranges. No forecasts.

When clients ask us "what is a normal return?" we usually push back on the question. There is no single normal —the answer depends on which 20-year window you pick, which asset mix, and whether you adjust for inflation. What we can do is describe the range.

Australian equities

Over rolling 20-year windows, the All Ordinaries has delivered long-run nominal returns in the high single digits to low double digits, with real returns after inflation materially lower. Along the way, there have been drawdowns of 40 to 50 per cent —the early 2000s, the GFC, the 2020 COVID shock. Anyone building a plan that assumes no drawdown is planning against history, not with it.

Cash and fixed interest

Cash returns have tracked the cash rate, which over the last 30 years has moved from double digits in the early 1990s to near zero in the 2010s, back to 4 per cent plus in 2023-24. The 2010s were an anomaly; the longer average is higher. Income-focused clients who remember 1990s deposit rates are planning off a different world.

Residential property

Australian residential property has had very long upswings and shorter corrections. The 2010s saw substantial price growth in Sydney and Melbourne, followed by a 2017-19 correction and the 2020-21 upcycle. The data shows clearly that property is not a one-way bet, even in Australia.

Property and equities have different long-run patterns

The point

Every asset class has had a period where it looked unstoppable, and a period where it looked broken. The planning conversation is not about picking the next unstoppable one. It is about building a mix that survives the broken periods without forcing a sale.

Sources: RBA, ABS, ASX historical data. This note is descriptive and does not constitute investment advice.

Superannuation

Superannuation for cross-border residents

A framework for thinking about Australian super, foreign pensions and residency.

Australian superannuation is one of the most tax-effective long-term savings vehicles for residents, but it interacts with cross-border arrangements in ways that often catch people out. This note describes the structural points; it is not tax advice.

Australian super basics

Compulsory employer contributions (currently 11.5 percent, rising to 12 percent by 2025) are taxed at 15 percent on entry, investment earnings inside the fund are taxed at up to 15 percent, and pension phase earnings are generally tax-free. For Australian tax residents, this structure is difficult to replicate outside super. The trade-offs are preservation age (currently 60 for most people) and limited access before that.

Foreign pensions and lump sums

An Australian tax resident may receive a foreign pension or lump sum from a former country of residence. The tax treatment depends on whether the payment is treated as income, a return of capital, or a superannuation-like benefit under Australian domestic law. Double tax agreements between Australia and many countries modify the default treatment. This is an area where a registered tax agent is essential; the rules are specific to the country and the product.

Contributions while non-resident

Australian super is not exclusively for residents. Non-residents can sometimes make contributions (for example, if they have an Australian fund balance and are returning), and some employer contributions continue even after the person leaves Australia. The concessional and non-concessional contribution caps still apply, and the tax treatment of contributions made while non-resident can differ.

Leaving Australia

When a person leaves Australia permanently, they may be entitled to release their super as a Departing Australia Superannuation Payment (DASP), subject to withholding tax. This is not automatic; it must be applied for. The withholding rate depends on visa status and whether a tax file number has been provided.

The planning point

Superannuation decisions for cross-border residents are rarely one-size-fits-all. The right approach depends on expected residency timeline, where the person ultimately retires, and double tax agreement coverage. A scoped review with a registered tax agent is the appropriate next step.

This note is general information only. It is not tax advice. Consult a registered tax agent for your situation.

Australian Major Asset Market Review